| SEMINAR ŞTIINŢIFIC MONEDA, FINANŢE, BĂNCI – ARHIVĂ |
Nowcasting Models for the Early Monitoring of Risks to Financial Stability
Marți, 14 octombrie 2025 – ora 16:30 – sala 3M4 (etaj 1, clădirea Moxa)
Grigore Ivan and Ștefania Stancu
National Bank of Romania and Bucharest University of Economic Studies; grigore.ivan@bnro.ro
Abstract:
This paper proposes a framework for the rapid assessment of the business cycle in Romania, based on the integration of economic indicators with different frequencies. Beyond using traditional data, the framework thus exploits a diverse set of high-frequency indicators, available with reduced lag, which provide a more detailed and up-to-date picture of economic dynamics. By combining these information sources, the model enables earlier identification of changes in economic activity, compared to official monthly or quarterly statistics. In turbulent periods, marked by many sources of uncertainty, such a tool offers a prompt perspective on trends, contributing to real-time conjunctural analysis.