Abstract:
This paper aims to investigate the effects of macroprudential policy measures on asset price dynamics, focusing on the banking sector stock market and residential house prices in France. Using quarterly data for the period 2000Q3 to 2024Q3, the anlaysis employs an Autoregressive Distributed Lag Bounds Testing framework to examine both the short and long-run relationships between macroprudential policy and the two markets. The empirical results suggest that the effects of macroprudential policy are not uniform across markets. While tighter macroprudential measures tend to reduce bank stock prices in the short run, the relationship with house price dynamics appears more complex.
Zoom:
https://ase.zoom.us/j/88975840175?pwd=Q0ZnbHl0TjhqcEtzVnhMUWRmdWdPQT09
Activitate de socializare: J’ai Bistrot
Abstract:
Digitalization is transforming the way individuals access and use financial services, raising the question of whether digital financial literacy contributes to financial well-being beyond traditional financial literacy. Using individual-level data from the 2023 OECD/INFE International Survey of Adult Financial Literacy for 24 countries, this study examines the relationships between traditional financial literacy, digital financial literacy, and financial well-being. The findings show a consistent positive relationship between traditional financial literacy and financial well-being. Digital financial literacy is also positively related to financial well-being after controlling for traditional financial literacy, although the relationship is substantially weaker. The two dimensions of financial literacy display distinct patterns across financial well-being: traditional financial literacy is more strongly linked to objective financial well-being, whereas digital financial literacy shows a closer relationship with subjective financial well-being. Moreover, the positive link between digital financial literacy and financial well-being is concentrated among individuals with higher levels of financial well-being and is not evident at the lower end of the distribution.
Zoom:
https://ase.zoom.us/j/88975840175?pwd=Q0ZnbHl0TjhqcEtzVnhMUWRmdWdPQT09
Activitate de socializare: Ever After
Abstract:
Understanding why firms pay dividends, and how much, remains a central open question in corporate finance. Yet empirical research continues to rely largely on linear models, despite their limited predictive performance and the infrequent validation on out of sample. This paper proposes an interpretable machine learning framework that combines the predictive accuracy of gradient boosting with economically meaningful determinants characterized by direction, magnitude, and statistical significance. Using a large dataset we model four payout measures with XGBoost, evaluate them out of sample on an expanding window design, and interpret them with SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) values. Refitting the whole pipeline on repeated subsamples of firms attaches statistical significance to each overall importance score and of the determinant’s impact at each quantile of its distribution. The models roughly double the predictive power of ordinary least squares and Tobit on held out years. Whether a firm pays and how much it pays turn out to be governed by different forces: firm scale and the country of incorporation drive the decision, while profitability and growth drive the amount. The country effect proves largely institutional, the leading fundamentals are non-linear, with effects concentrated in parts of their range, and past payout dominates the dynamic model. The results are robust to sample, specification, and the choice of learning algorithm.
Zoom:
https://ase.zoom.us/j/88975840175?pwd=Q0ZnbHl0TjhqcEtzVnhMUWRmdWdPQT09
Activitate de socializare: Zăganu Bistro
Abstract:
This paper investigates the association between democracy and corporate dividend policy, with an emphasis on periods of economic and health uncertainty related to pandemic crises (using the COVID-19 pandemic crisis as a proxy). The analysis relies on 116,750 firm-year observations from 11,675 firms across 46 countries for the period 2013 – 2022. The results show that democracy is positively associated with dividend payments. Pandemic shock is captured through a wide range of complementary measures related to epidemiological severity, government measures, and population sentiments. We find that the pandemic crisis is negatively associated with dividend payments. One of the main findings indicates that interactional variables between democracy and the different proxy variables of the pandemic are significant, but the results depend on the level of the country economic development. Furthermore, the choice of the angle from which the pandemic shock is captured becomes relevant for the sign and scale of the association between dividend payout and each interactional variable with democracy. For companies from developed countries, democratic cultures positively interact with pandemic crisis proxies in explaining dividend payments. In emerging and developing economies, democracy negatively interacts with the variables of pandemic crises when dividend payments are decided. Our results can offer insights for top management decision makers and international investors for better dividend forecasting and provide clarifications for dividend policies..
Zoom:
https://ase.zoom.us/j/88975840175?pwd=Q0ZnbHl0TjhqcEtzVnhMUWRmdWdPQT09
Activitate de socializare: Green Hours Jazz Cafe
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